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February 25, 2026
By Dr Marlene Attzs, Economist
Email: marlene.attzs@gmail.com
Released at the height of our Carnival celebrations, the recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) Article IV mission statement may have sounded technical—and may even have been overshadowed by the season’s revelry —but its message carries real consequences for families, communities, and future generations.
The bottom line from the IMF is clear: Trinidad and Tobago’s economic recovery since the pandemic is real, but fragile, and several deep-seated challenges now demand immediate and sustained attention.
IMF missions assess the economic health of a country through discussions with ministers, central bankers, civil society, and private sector leaders, offering an external perspective on where we stand and where we may be heading.
Growth: better, but not enough
According to IMF staff, our economy is slowly growing driven primarily by manufacturing and services—but this growth remains too slow to make up for years of weak energy output.
At the same time, government policy adjustments—including a recent significant increase in natural gas prices by the National Gas Company (NGC) for industrial users—highlight the complex trade-offs facing policymakers and business. Higher gas prices will raise production costs, with potential knock-on effects for consumer prices and competitiveness.
The IMF further notes that unemployment is not at crisis levels, inflation remains low, and foreign exchange reserves offer some cushion. Yet behind these headline figures lie challenges that ordinary citizens feel in their daily lives: job prospects for young people still lag, and households face uncertainty when it comes to rising costs and long-term income stability.
Fiscal strains and rising debt
The most pressing concern highlighted by the IMF is the growing strain on the public purse. The government recorded a sizeable fiscal deficit in 2025 because revenues from non-energy sources were lower than expected while spending remained high.
As a result, central government debt—the money borrowed directly by the State to finance its operations—has risen to roughly 68 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). More concerning is the fact that when the debt of State-owned enterprises and other government-controlled entities is included, total public sector debt now exceeds 80 per cent of GDP—meaning the country owes about 80 cents for every dollar of income it generates in a year.
At these levels, debt servicing absorbs an increasing share of national resources. This should matter to every citizen and household in Trinidad and Tobago. High debt is not merely a financial statistic. It raises a moral question: are we living today at the expense of tomorrow’s children?
Stewardship requires that we manage today’s resources in a way that does not mortgage tomorrow’s possibilities.
The foreign exchange and structural challenges
Another recurring theme highlighted in the IMF’s statement is the country’s foreign exchange situation. The IMF suggests that allowing a more flexible exchange rate could ease some tensions. But any move toward greater exchange rate flexibility is as much a political question as an economic one.
For decades, successive administrations have postponed difficult decisions on foreign exchange adjustment—because no government readily wishes to be the one to bell ‘the forex cat’.
In an economy where virtually everything we consume—from food to medicine to building materials—is imported at a foreign-exchange cost, even small adjustments can quickly translate into higher prices.
The challenge, therefore, is not only about technical exchange rate management, but about navigating the political realities of an import-dependent society where currency decisions are felt immediately at the supermarket and hardware store.
Beyond broad economic indicators, the IMF’s statement underscores the need for structural reforms. Trinidad and Tobago’s dependence on oil and gas—while a source of revenue for decades—remains a vulnerability. Efforts to stimulate agriculture, technology, tourism and creative industries have yet to translate into enduring economic transformation.
A Nation’s choice
What does this mean for everyday citizens? For policymakers, the message is clear: there are no easy fixes. A delicate balance must be found: expanding the tax base without undermining competitiveness; managing public expenditure without hollowing out essential services; and diversifying the economy without sacrificing social equity.
My fellow citizens, please do not dismiss this as a technical debate for economists and policymakers alone. Economic decisions shape the opportunities available to our young people, the quality of public services our families rely on, the prices we pay at the supermarket, and our country’s ability to withstand an increasingly uncertain global environment.
These issues are not abstract—they touch every household, every business, and every community across Trinidad and Tobago.
As we reflect on the IMF’s statement, the real question is not whether the required changes will be easy—they will not—but whether we have the courage to choose long-term stability over short-term comfort.
The Carnival is indeed over. Now begins the season of sober reflection. The budgets ahead will be challenging. The task will go beyond simply finding revenue to meet spending commitments in a time of tightening resources.
Future budgets will reveal, in very concrete terms, the kind of future we are prepared to build, finance, and sustain through the decisions we make today.
That’s my point of view.
