By Dr Marlene Attzs, Economist

Email: marlene.attzs@gmail.com

Happy New Year! As we usher in 2026, many of us begin the year with hope—hope for our families, our communities, and of course, hope for our country. Hope is a powerful and necessary virtue, especially after years marked by uncertainty and strain. But as people of faith, we know that hope must be grounded in truth, prudence, and a shared sense of responsibility.

The reality is that while there are signs of improvement in our economy, recovery remains fragile. This is not a cause for fear, but it is a call for realism and careful stewardship.

A fragile recovery felt in everyday life

The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago recently published its Monetary Policy Report. The report was released in December 2025 and was a timely reminder that economic progress has not been felt evenly by everyone.

The energy sector has shown some improvement but many non-energy businesses—the ones that employ most people—are still struggling to regain momentum. Investment remains cautious, and global uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on small economies like ours. For ordinary families, this is not ‘highfalutin’ economics. The average citizen experiences ‘economics in action’—showing up in grocery bills that grow a little more each month, in school expenses that feel heavier, and in the quiet worry about whether savings will be enough for the future.

This sense of unease has been heightened by a recent announcement from the Unit Trust Corporation (UTC), of the removal of its long-standing unit price guarantee.

For many citizens—especially retirees, pensioners, and middle-income savers—the UTC has long been seen as a safe harbour for their life savings. While the change does not mean that savings have disappeared, it does serve as a sobering reminder that no institution is entirely insulated from economic pressures.

Fair wages, wise choices

Returning to the Central Bank’s report, it also cautioned that recent wage increases—while important for fairness and dignity—must be managed carefully.

Put simply, when wages rise but productivity does not, people have more money to spend but the country does not necessarily produce more goods and services to match that demand. The result is often higher spending on imported goods, since we import much of what we consume.

Economists describe this as an increase in aggregate demand, particularly for foreign goods. When that happens, pressure builds on our limited foreign exchange and prices can rise. In short, higher wages must be supported by higher productivity if they are to strengthen, rather than strain, the economy.

This is not an argument against fair wages. Paying people fairly must be accompanied by investment in skills, productivity, and local enterprise—so that higher incomes translate into strengthening the economy.

A region shaped by memory

As we reflect on the road ahead in 2026, we must also be mindful of events unfolding beyond our borders. The recent heightened tensions and military activity involving Venezuela and the USA have understandably caused concern in the Caribbean. For our region, these matters are never distant.

History has taught us that Caribbean States are often deeply affected by decisions taken elsewhere. The United States’ military interventions in Grenada in 1983 and Panama in 1989 remain part of our collective memory—not as wounds to reopen, but as lessons about sovereignty, vulnerability, and the importance of regional voice.

For small States, peace, dialogue, and respect for international norms are not abstract ideals; they are matters of survival. This is why Caribbean unity and thoughtful diplomacy remain so important, especially in times of global uncertainty.

A call to collective effort and hope

My closing word is that economic stability and social well-being cannot be delivered by government alone. They require shared effort.

Businesses must invest responsibly. Workers must continue to adapt and build skills. Families must support one another with compassion and care. Communities—parishes included—play a vital role in sustaining hope and solidarity.

As we move through 2026, let us embrace a hope that is neither naïve nor fearful but grounded. Let us pray for those entrusted with economic and political stewardship, that they may lead with wisdom, humility, and moral clarity.

The well-being of Trinidad and Tobago will not be secured by any single institution or policy. It will be shaped by our collective choices: to act honestly, to care for the vulnerable, and to place people—always—at the centre.

And so, in this new year, we can, and should, remain hopeful. But let that hope be shared, purposeful, and grounded in the quiet work of building a society that truly serves the common good.

That’s my point of view!